Economic and Market Quarterly Insights

The third quarter brought a mix of market volatility driven by political uncertainty and worries about future economic growth. However, solid corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin cutting rates helped offset those concerns, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs and closing the quarter with strong gains.

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Markets staged an impressive reversal in the fourth quarter thanks to a surprise dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, which combined with solid economic activity and declining inflation to push stocks sharply higher and send the S&P 500 to two-plus-year highs, resulting in the best annual return since 2021.

The S&P 500 rose to the highest level since March 2022 early in the third quarter but rising global bond yields, fears of a rebound in inflation and concerns about a future economic slowdown weighed on the major indices in August and September and the S&P 500 finished the third quarter with a modest loss.

The S&P 500 ended the second quarter and first half of 2023 at a 14-month high and most major stock indices logged solid gains in the second quarter following a pause in the Fed’s rate hike campaign, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings (especially in the tech sector) and the relatively drama-free resolution of the debt ceiling.

The S&P 500 ended the first quarter of 2023 with a solid gain as hopes for an economic “soft landing” and the Fed signaling that their historic rate hike campaign is coming to an end helped offset two rate increases and the biggest bank failures since the financial crisis.

Global markets declined again in the third quarter as inflation remained near multi-decade highs, geopolitical tensions escalated further, and the Federal Reserve continued to aggressively hike interest rates signaling future rate increases will be larger than previously expected.

Good morning. Welcome to our Q2 Economic & Market Commentary. The S&P 500 continued to decline in the second quarter, hitting the lowest level since December 2020 as still-high inflation, sharp increases in interest rates, rising recession risks, and ongoing geopolitical unrest pressured stocks and other assets.

After a historically calm 2021, volatility returned in the first quarter of 2022, as inflation surged to 40-year highs, the Federal Reserve promised to raise interest rates faster than previously thought, and Russia surprised the world with a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, marking the first major military conflict in Europe in decades. Those factors fueled a rise in volatility and pushed stocks lower in the first three months of the year.

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